Is America Heading Towards a "Cold Civil War"?

On September 10, 2025, Charlie Kirk, a prominent conservative figure and co-founder of Turning Point USA, was shot during an event at Utah Valley University in Utah. The media widely referred to the incident as a "political assassination."

The assassination of Charlie Kirk represents an extreme and symbolic event in the escalation of political violence in the United States. It reflects the growing tension within American society between political polarization, opposing viewpoints, public safety, and the freedom of expression. This event is not only a tragedy but also serves as a warning to society, politics, and institutions: if hatred and extremism are not effectively curbed, similar incidents may become more frequent in the future.

In recent years, political polarization in the U.S. has deepened, and social divisions have worsened. Recent violent events, election disputes, and radicalized political opposition have led to the question: Is America moving towards a "cold civil war"? This is not just a historical question but also a deep reflection on the current state of American society.

The Intensification of Political Polarization: From Words to Violence

The political rift in the U.S. did not emerge suddenly but is the result of long-term accumulation. Since the 1960s, with the Vietnam War and the Civil Rights Movement, political opposition has manifested in different forms at various historical stages. However, in the 21st century, especially during the Trump era, the political climate in America has undergone profound changes. Polls show that the political divisions among American voters have reached historic highs.

• Over 60% of Americans consider the opposing side to be a "threat to the country."
• After elections, many voters refuse to acknowledge the victory of the other side, believing that the election was "stolen."

This deep rift indicates that American politics is no longer merely about "policy differences" but about a profound cultural and identity-based confrontation. Traditional democratic dialogue and rational debate have gradually been replaced by extreme emotions, hate speech, and even violent actions.

The Extreme Polarization of Information: Heightening Divisions

In the information age, social media and news platforms have become the primary channels for shaping public opinion, often filled with extreme viewpoints and radical rhetoric. Whether it's the right-wing Fox News or the left-wing MSNBC, both frequently portray the other side as an "enemy" to attract attention.

The algorithms of social media particularly amplify this polarization. These recommendation algorithms enhance extreme emotions, leading people from different political stances to enter "information silos." Each group remains entrenched in its own echo chamber, with little to no flow of information or dialogue between them. This closed information ecosystem directly exacerbates the divisions in American society.

The "Normalization" of Political Violence

One important sign of a "cold civil war" is the normalization of violence. Political violence is no longer an isolated event but has become a warning to the public that the struggle is far from over. The January 6, 2021, Capitol riot was a microcosm of this trend. Trump supporters stormed the Capitol, attempting to overturn the election results through violence. This event not only shocked America but also showed the real threat of political violence to the world.

Recently, the violent attacks on conservative figures like Charlie Kirk further highlight the politicization of violence. Whether from the right or the left, the increasing frequency of violent incidents has created an atmosphere of "violence to counter violence" in American society. Extremist groups (such as Proud Boys and Antifa) have increasingly formed in both camps and even clashed in the streets, resulting in more injuries and deaths.

Protests and riots in California, armed militias in Michigan, and shootings at federal buildings have intensified the sense of insecurity in American society, seemingly signaling a trend where conflicts are no longer resolved through reason or ballots.

"Cold Civil War" and Election Crises

U.S. elections have always been tense, but recent election crises have stoked the flames of a "cold civil war." After the 2020 presidential election, some Republicans refused to acknowledge Biden's victory, and Trump supporters' claims of "election fraud" continue to this day. The January 6 Capitol riot was a stark warning sign, where violence and unrest erupted because some voters and political leaders refused to accept the election results.

Now, elections are no longer seen as a routine democratic process but as a battle to "win the political war." If this sentiment continues to spread, future election outcomes could further fuel political conflict and violence.

Civilian Groups and Armed Conflicts: A Potential "Quasi-Civil War"

There are increasingly active civilian militia groups and violent factions within American society, especially right-wing "white supremacy" organizations and left-wing "extreme protest groups." These groups not only have political agendas but also use terror tactics to achieve their goals.

For example, right-wing extremists like the Proud Boys and left-wing Antifa have clashed violently in various cities across the U.S. Recent political assassinations, such as the shooting of conservative figure Charlie Kirk, further highlight the growing influence of these armed groups.

Militant groups are gaining strength in some states, especially in conservative regions in the West and South. These militias are not only defending their homes and lands but often have political objectives that directly oppose the federal government, even seeking to overthrow it through violent means.

This form of "quasi-civil war" may not erupt into a full-scale "traditional war," but political violence and armed confrontation are becoming a latent societal risk.

The Roots of the "Cold Civil War": Deep Changes in Social Structure

The fundamental changes in American society are also driving the risk of a "cold civil war." With globalization, immigration, and changing racial dynamics, the relative power of white Americans has been declining, leading many conservative groups to feel marginalized. This sense of "loss" and cultural panic has created fertile ground for right-wing extremism.

At the same time, the divide between urban and rural areas has become more pronounced. Younger, more diverse voters in cities tend to support the Democratic Party, while rural and small-town conservative voters lean towards the Republican Party. This urban-rural divide has further deepened social rifts.

In this context, traditional political and class identities have become increasingly complex. People's positions are often driven by emotional factors, cultural identity, and economic pressures. This complex social structure has turned what were once simple political differences into "identity conflicts," making it easier for violence and extremism to emerge.

The Future of the Cold Civil War: A Crisis That Cannot Be Ignored

While the U.S. is unlikely to descend into a traditional full-scale civil war, the risk of a "cold civil war" is steadily increasing. The trends of political violence, radicalization, and social polarization are becoming more evident. This low-intensity form of civil war may not escalate as quickly as historical wars, but its impact will be equally profound. It undermines the foundations of democracy, disrupts social cohesion, and even threatens the nation's future.

If the U.S. does not take effective measures to intervene—strengthen democratic norms, dialogue mechanisms, and curb the spread of extreme emotions—this "cold civil war" may continue to escalate. This is not only a challenge for America but also a serious test for the global democratic order.